← CoreTCG Phantom Monarchs Regional Championship
Water Umbra CielTier 2
at CoreTCG Phantom Monarchs Regional Championship
decks
1
(0.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-5-0
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1141
· median 1141
· range 1141–1141
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1164
Q3 1374
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Alice | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
